As we are just one week away from the first reveal of the College Football Playoff Rankings, it is hard to believe that we are already 2/3 of the way done with the regular season. No need to fear though, with the newish playoff structure, we still have three months left of college football! That means crazy finishes and more blog posts!
The South Eastern Conference
As conference races start to take shape, this week’s post dives deep into each Power Conference, along with the usual look at the Group of Five race. We start with the conference where it just means more — the SEC.
Currently, the SEC frontrunner is a team from Texas that’s undefeated both in conference play and overall. No, not the preseason No. 1 from Austin — it’s the Aggies from Texas A&M. Starting the season ranked No. 19, the Aggies have ridden a relatively favorable SEC schedule to an 8–0 start. That doesn’t discount their early-season road win over Notre Dame, but Saturday night’s win in Death Valley (yes, the real Death Valley based on results this year) was their first victory against a ranked SEC opponent.
A night game in Baton Rouge should never be taken lightly, no matter how much LSU is stumbling right now. Marcel Reed has been outstanding for the Aggies, while head coach Mike Elko has guided them to mostly comfortable conference wins. With just three SEC games left — and a bye week before their matchup with Missouri — Texas A&M once again controls its own destiny for a trip to Atlanta. It didn’t work out last year, but they’ll look to redeem themselves this time around.
After a dreadful Week 1 showing, Kalen DeBoer and Alabama have rattled off seven straight wins, including five in SEC play — four of them against ranked opponents. The Tide have shown both grit and dominance along the way, though they nearly slipped up this past week against a reeling South Carolina squad. Thanks to a late drive led by Ty Simpson to tie it, and a costly fumble by Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers, Alabama escaped in a game they probably shouldn’t have won. Still, DeBoer keeps wearing the black hoodie, and the Crimson Tide keep winning.
Their remaining conference games — LSU and Oklahoma at home — look favorable given both teams’ recent struggles. The final game, however, will test every Alabama fan’s nerves: the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium. No one ever really knows what will happen there.
Georgia and Ole Miss sit right behind the top two teams at 4–1 in SEC play. Georgia’s lone loss came to Alabama, while Ole Miss’s came to Georgia. The Bulldogs had a bye this week and now head into the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party. Their only remaining ranked SEC opponent is Texas (don’t worry, we’ll get to them). A big matchup with in-state rival Georgia Tech looms, but that won’t affect conference standings.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, let Oklahoma hang around this past weekend before pulling away comfortably in Norman. With no ranked opponents left and only one road game remaining — the Egg Bowl to close the year — a 7–1 conference finish is very much on the table for the Rebels.
The real surprises of the SEC might be the two teams sitting at 3–1 in conference play — for very different reasons. Vanderbilt finds itself as a top-10 team after knocking off another top-15 opponent in Missouri. Diego Pavia has been everything they needed — a steady leader with playmaking ability — and all phases of the game are clicking.
They face the other 3–1 team this week: the Texas Longhorns. Somehow, after all that’s happened, Texas isn’t out of it. But man, it hasn’t been pretty. A one-score win over Kentucky and a double-overtime victory against Mississippi State make their 3–1 mark feel more like 4–4. Unlike the teams above them, Texas has a brutal remaining schedule: four SEC games left, three against top-10 opponents. Margin for error is nonexistent — especially with a quarterback still searching for his rhythm.
Missouri, Oklahoma, and LSU all looked strong early in the year, but the tide has turned for each of them. Missouri’s struggles were somewhat expected, and Oklahoma always felt like they were living on borrowed time. LSU, though, has been flat-out disappointing. They lost a night game in Death Valley and now get Alabama as a reward. Brian Kelly seems to have lost the reins — and fans were calling for his job after blowing a halftime lead to Texas A&M.
After starting 5–0, Oklahoma looked like a dark horse. I thought they might not win another game — and while they proved me wrong by beating South Carolina, their final stretch is brutal: Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Even with Missouri and LSU sinking, those are far from guaranteed wins.
South Carolina might be the biggest disappointment of all. I had them pegged for a playoff run, and now they sit at 1–5 in SEC play and 3–5 overall. That’s a nightmare outcome for Shane Beamer and a team that entered the season with sky-high expectations.
My preseason pick to win the SEC was Texas — along with a bunch of other so-called “college football experts.” We couldn’t have been more wrong about the Longhorns and Arch Manning. My midseason pick now? Alabama.
I’m not sure how all the tiebreakers will shake out for the SEC title game, but one thing’s certain: it’s going to be an exciting finish down South.
The BIG 10 Conference
The conference of the Midwest (and now the West Coast) has gone about 75% the way experts predicted. The big glaring misfire? Penn State.
One of last year’s final four in the 12-team playoff, the Nittany Lions were expected to take the next step under James Franklin with veteran quarterback Drew Allar — maybe even make a real run at the national championship. Fast-forward to Week 9: Franklin is unemployed, Allar is out for the season, and Penn State is 0-4 in conference play. Hard to imagine it going much worse in Happy Valley — or maybe, at this point, Sad Valley. But hey, look on the bright side: they now get to face the top two teams in the country in back-to-back weeks!
The other big surprise of the season in the Big Ten is Indiana traveling across the country and beating Oregon in Eugene. The Hoosiers now sit at 5-0 in conference play, fully controlling their own destiny for a spot in the conference title game. Unlike last year, when they needed help to reach Indianapolis (help that never came), this time Indiana has a great chance to play for — and possibly win — their first conference championship in 58 years.
Ohio State finds itself exactly where it wants to be: No. 1 in the country and 4-0 in conference. That Week 1 win against Texas looks worse and worse with each passing week, and when you dig into their schedule, their only other ranked win is against Illinois — an Illinois team that just got waxed by Washington. Then again, Ohio State beat Washington too, so it all balances out, right?
Once again, a final-week matchup in the Big House against Michigan looms large. It’s likely to be their only remaining ranked opponent, meaning win or lose, Ohio State’s playoff spot looks secure — but their place in the Big Ten title game isn’t quite locked in yet.
Michigan and Iowa are a quiet 4-1 in conference play, while Oregon also sits at 4-1, though a bit deflated after its loss to Indiana. Iowa and Oregon’s only losses came to those same Hoosiers, while Michigan stumbled on its cross-country trip to the Coliseum in L.A. Iowa and Oregon meet November 8th, and the outcome will likely end one team’s title hopes. The winner will still need help, but they won’t be out of it by any means.
Michigan looks to be in a good spot after its ground game dominated this past weekend, earning a convincing win over not their biggest rival — but one that led to their biggest rival (Michigan State) losing to their biggest rival. Yeah, try to wrap your head around that one. As if Michigan-Ohio State needed any more juice, there’s a good chance this year’s matchup could once again decide who heads to Indianapolis — just like it did three straight years before last season.
USC still has an outside shot at the title game, but its loss to Illinois keeps aging poorly as the Illini’s hot start cools off. Meanwhile, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington, and Northwestern are all having good seasons, but they’re probably too far behind the top tier to make a real run.
My preseason pick to win the conference was Oregon. They’ve played well, but based on current standings, I don’t think they make the title game. My midseason pick? Ohio State over Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
The Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 might be the conference with the least amount of parity compared to what the “experts” predicted in the preseason. The two biggest surprises have been Houston and Cincinnati, who were both 3-6 in conference play last year. After this weekend, Cincinnati sits at 5-0 and Houston at 4-1 in conference, with the Cougars’ only loss coming to Texas Tech.
BYU stands alone atop the conference with an overall record of 8-0 and a 5-0 mark in Big 12 play. The Cougars have found ways to win in just about every fashion imaginable, the latest coming this weekend against Iowa State in Ames. After falling behind early 24-10, BYU outscored the Cyclones 31-3 to win comfortably. This came in a game where leading rusher LJ Martin exited early, so the upcoming bye week couldn’t come at a better time. After the break, they travel to Lubbock for a highly anticipated matchup with Texas Tech on November 8th.
Texas Tech and their NIL-built roster have been everything they were advertised to be. An early beatdown of Utah in Salt Lake City back in September set the tone for a potentially special season. A loss to Arizona State in Tempe was a small bump in the road, but with several key games remaining, the Red Raiders still control their own destiny in the race for the conference title game in Arlington.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has everything to prove as College Gameday heads to Utah for their top-25 matchup this coming weekend. The Bearcats’ win over Iowa State looked great at the time, but with the Cyclones’ recent losses to Colorado and BYU, that victory has lost some shine. Cincinnati also hosts BYU in November — a crucial game that could reshape the conference race. With BYU, Tech, and Cincy all facing each other, all three still hold their fate in their own hands.
Utah and Arizona State haven’t lived up to expectations this season — though Utah has fared better than the Sun Devils. Losses to Texas Tech and BYU don’t ruin the Utes’ year, especially given how dominant they’ve looked in other games against Arizona State and Colorado. Still, they’ll need some help to claim their first Big 12 title, as two of the teams above them hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. A win this week against Cincinnati could give them the boost they need. Arizona State, on the other hand, just can’t seem to win when quarterback Sam Leavitt doesn’t play. Three overall losses have eliminated them from back-to-back playoff appearances — unless they somehow win the conference, which seems like a long shot at this point.
Kansas State, after a horrendous start to the year, has started to figure things out and is quietly having a solid conference season, highlighted by their 17th straight win in the Sunflower Showdown. TCU has cooled off after a hot start — the opposite trajectory of K-State — but both now sit at 3-2 in conference play.
The biggest disappointment in the Big 12 this year has to be Iowa State. The Cyclones entered the season with high hopes after last year’s late-season collapse. The only difference this year? The collapse came a little earlier. The loss to BYU isn’t terrible, but the one to Colorado might be one of the worst of the season, as Colorado has turned out to be nothing more than a giant buffalo chip.
The only thing missing from this Big 12 season is a matchup between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. I’ve heard rumors they’ll be playing on the mini field outside AT&T Stadium before the conference championship game.
My preseason pick to win the Big 12 was BYU — and I’m sticking with it. Go Cougs!
The Atlantic Coast Conference
The conference that runs up and down the Atlantic Coast — with cameos in Dallas and San Francisco — has been as steady as ever this year. Coming into the season, all the talk was about how Clemson had its best team since the national championship runs. Then Week 1 happened, and suddenly it looked like Florida State was back in the picture. Fast forward to now, and the two are a combined 2-7 in conference play, with Clemson owning both of those wins.
Georgia Tech and Virginia find themselves as the two remaining unbeaten teams in conference play — just like everyone predicted, right? Georgia Tech is undefeated on the season, with its best win coming against Clemson… the same team we just mentioned as being bad. Virginia’s only loss came to NC State, but don’t worry — that wasn’t a conference game, so they’re still “good.” The Cavaliers have four overtime wins already, and while their victory over Washington State didn’t require extra time, it sure helped that the Cougars’ special teams fell apart.
Georgia Tech still has to face Pitt in conference play, giving the Yellow Jackets a fairly clear path to the ACC title game in Charlotte. Virginia, meanwhile, gets to test its luck against a tough closing stretch — every remaining opponent has at least a .500 record in conference play.
Even with two teams unbeaten in league play, the ACC feels like the most wide-open conference in the country. Miami, Louisville, Pitt, Duke, and SMU all sit with one conference loss. SMU’s came this past weekend in a turnover-fest that featured seven total giveaways — their first regular season conference loss since joining the league. Miami is ranked inside the top 10 nationally, while Louisville just beat that same Miami team. The Cardinals’ only loss came in overtime to Virginia.
Then there’s Florida State. After beating Alabama in Week 1, the Seminoles have dropped four of their last six. Their only wins came against Kent State and East Texas A&M. They’ve lost every conference game this year and, since winning the ACC in 2023, are now 1-11 in conference play. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. The only team worse in conference is Boston College — and once again, we’re robbed of a winless matchup at season’s end. Maybe they can schedule a sympathy game with Oklahoma State or West Virginia.
Once again, I listened to the preseason experts and picked Clemson to win the ACC. Spoiler alert: I don’t think that’s happening anymore. My midseason pick to win the ACC is Miami.
Group of 5
Navy remains the only undefeated Group of 5 team left — and the cowards in the AP Poll still won’t even rank them. Staying in the American Conference, Tulane also sits undefeated in conference play. The term “conference cannibalism” has officially entered the chat, as Memphis — fresh off their loss in the Battle of the Bones — turned around and upset USF this past weekend.
Tulane and Memphis meet in two weeks in what could determine the frontrunner for the conference title. South Florida and Navy play the following week, likely producing the opponent for the Tulane/Memphis winner. Meanwhile, North Texas sits exactly where they want to be — forgotten. But with their matchup against Navy this weekend, they could quickly jump right back into the title conversation. And don’t sleep on Temple, who’s quietly hanging around with their only blemish being a one-point loss to Navy. I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of Memphis to take the American.
Boise State and San Diego State seem to be on a collision course for a massive November 15th matchup in Boise. Both remain undefeated in conference play, but San Diego State can’t overlook Hawai‘i — who sits just one game back. UNLV will be huge fans of the Rainbow Warriors in that one. If Hawai‘i can knock off the Aztecs, and UNLV handles their business, we could see a Boise State–UNLV rematch for the Mountain West crown. I’m sticking with my preseason pick of Boise State.
In Conference USA, Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State — two recently promoted FBS programs — both find themselves undefeated in conference play. It’s been an impressive rise for both. Still, don’t count out Western Kentucky or Liberty, who each sit with just one conference loss. Missouri State can’t play for the title this year since it’s their first FBS season, but they’ve made things interesting nonetheless. I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of Jacksonville State.
In the Sun Belt — the only conference that still uses divisions — James Madison, Southern Miss, and Troy remain the only unbeaten teams in conference play. James Madison controls the East and just needs to fend off Coastal Carolina and Marshall to return to the title game. In the West, Southern Miss and Troy meet in the final week of the season in what could become a winner-take-all matchup, assuming both take care of business between now and then. My preseason prediction was Louisiana, but my midseason pick switches to James Madison.
Finally, in the MAC, Miami (OH) leads the way at 4-0 in conference. Central Michigan, Buffalo, Ohio, and Western Michigan are all lurking at 3-2. Some Tuesday and Wednesday nights in November are shaping up to be crucial for anyone hoping to reach Detroit. My preseason pick was Toledo, but my midseason pick to win the MAC is Western Michigan.
Game of the Week: Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 OT
In a season to forget for Texas, after narrowly escaping Kentucky last week, the Longhorns traveled to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. Texas started hot, scoring on just their second play of the game to take an early 7–0 lead. It looked like the Longhorns might finally settle in and cruise to an easy win as the nearly nine-point favorites they were.
Everything seemed to be going Texas’s way early, as Mississippi State couldn’t get anything going — punting and missing a field goal on their opening drives. But Texas stalled out on offense, and the Bulldogs eventually broke through with a touchdown to tie the game at 7–7 at the end of the first quarter.
Texas responded with an early score in the second, only for Mississippi State to answer right back to make it 14–14. Then, an Arch Manning interception set up a short field for the Bulldogs, who took advantage with a field goal. A 60-yard drive just before halftime ended in another touchdown, giving Mississippi State a 24–14 lead heading into the break.
The third quarter was mostly uneventful — three punts, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs — until Mississippi State added a late touchdown with 26 seconds left to extend their lead to 31–14.
The fourth quarter, however, was pure chaos. Texas scored on their first three possessions, chipping away at the deficit. Even after Mississippi State added another touchdown, the Longhorns trailed just 38–31 with under two minutes to play. Set to receive the punt, it looked like Arch Manning might get his signature moment, leading an 80-yard drive to tie the game. But Ryan Niblett said, “no need.” He housed the punt to tie the game at 38–38.
Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen couldn’t produce a game-winning drive, and a contest that Mississippi State led by 17 with just over 15 minutes to play was suddenly headed to overtime. The Bulldogs won the toss and wisely chose to play defense first — or at least they thought it was wise. Texas marched down the field in three plays to take a 45–38 lead. Mississippi State, meanwhile, lost 41 yards on their possession of overtime, and that was all she wrote.
The largest comeback in Texas Longhorn history — capped by the dramatic punt return touchdown — kept their playoff hopes alive and earned this matchup the title of College Footblog Game of the Week.
Stat Line of the Week
Drew Mestemaker (North Texas): 37/49 608 YDS 4 TD
The North Texas Mean Green are quietly having one of the best seasons in program history, thanks in large part to quarterback Drew Mestemaker. On Friday night, Mestemaker threw for a career-high, eclipsing 600 yards for the first time. It marked the first time since 2020 that an FBS quarterback has thrown for over 600 yards in a single game.
Will’s Corner
BYU 41, Iowa State 27
BYU gave up a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of the game, and the first half didn’t go much better. The Cougars lost LJ Martin to injury and, aside from an interception in the red zone, couldn’t slow down the Cyclone offense. Down 24-10 at one point, a late touchdown right before halftime gave BYU some life and set up a possible two-for-one with the second-half kickoff. They only managed a field goal on that drive, though, and promptly allowed a 65-yard run by Iowa State. Fortunately, the defense stiffened and held the Cyclones to a field goal — and from there, BYU completely took over. The Cougars didn’t allow another point and even added a pick-six to extend their lead. Another interception sealed the win late as BYU outscored Iowa State 31-3 from the middle of the second quarter onward to win comfortably. BYU now heads into a bye week before traveling to Texas Tech. LJ Martin’s injury status is still unclear, but the week off comes at a perfect time.
Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34
Any SEC road win is a good win — except maybe when it’s against Kentucky, because they’re just not very good. Tennessee looked sharp early but allowed Kentucky to cut the lead to seven in the second quarter. Joey Aguilar continued his strong play, throwing for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns, though the running game once again struggled. The defense also gave up close to 500 yards, which remains a concern. The Vols host Oklahoma this week in a must-win matchup that could determine whether their playoff hopes stay alive.
Washington State 28, Toledo 7
The Cougars hosted my preseason pick to win the MAC — the “powerhouse” Toledo Rockets (okay, maybe I picked them just to boost my Cougs). Either way, Wazzu handled business. Leading 21-7 at halftime and shutting out Toledo in the second half, the Cougars cruised to a 28-7 victory. The running game finally showed some life as Eckhaus and Vorhees both topped 60 yards on the ground. Washington State now begins a home-and-home series with Oregon State, starting in Corvallis next week. If they want to avoid being the Beavers’ second win of the year, they’ll need to clean up the turnovers and keep the ground game rolling.
AP Poll Reaction
The Top 6 don't move
BYU and Miami are tied at #10
Houston, USC, Utah, and Memphis enter the Top 25 spots #22-#25, replacing South Florida, LSU, Illinois, and Arizona State
Memphis is the only ranked G5
Texas A&M got in on the first place votes and received one.
Heisman 5
1. Haynes King – Georgia Tech
Taking over the new No. 1 spot in the Heisman rankings, King accounted for five touchdowns this past Saturday. He threw for over 300 yards and added another 91 yards on the ground. King is the definition of tough — he’d give anything for his team, and he continues to put himself on the line and deliver results.
2. Diego Pavia – Vanderbilt
Another top-25 victory for Pavia has the Commodores flying high. This wasn’t his best game, though — he didn’t have a passing touchdown, finishing with 129 yards and an interception. He did add a score on the ground but wasn’t his usual dual-threat self. Still, finding a way to win even when you’re not at your best is a true Heisman quality.
3. Ty Simpson – Alabama
A slow start against South Carolina was quickly forgotten as Simpson became the key factor in Alabama’s comeback win. He has a chance to vault himself into the frontrunner position, but just as easily could play himself out of contention. Consistency will be the key moving forward.
4. Fernando Mendoza – Indiana
Another dominant win — this time over a UCLA team that had been knocking off opponents left and right — adds to Mendoza’s growing résumé as a legitimate contender.
5. Jeremiyah Love – Notre Dame
The bye week only helped Love’s case — he couldn’t do anything to hurt it.
CFB News
ESPN’s College Gameday is headed to Salt Lake City for the Cincinnati vs. Utah game late Saturday night. Maybe all the complaints from college football fans have finally paid off — this will be the first edition of the show this year that doesn’t feature either an SEC or Big Ten team. Utah will try to break their streak of losing whenever the pregame shows come to town. The Utes’ last win in a game attended by College Gameday or Big Noon Kickoff was back on October 10th, 2015, when they beat Cal. They’re 0-8 in such games since.
Big Noon Kickoff heads to what was supposed to be the Big Ten matchup of the year, but Penn State already spoiled that narrative. Ohio State opens as a 20.5-point favorite, which says plenty about how far apart these two programs are right now.
There are also rumors swirling that LSU has fired Brian Kelly. Nothing has been confirmed yet, but the buyout for Kelly would reportedly be north of $50 million. If this turns out to be true, it would only add to what’s shaping up to be one of the wildest coaching carousels in college football history.
Games to Watch – Week 10
9. Vanderbilt @ 20. Texas – Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET (ABC)
Navy @ North Texas – Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET (ESPN2)
18. Oklahoma @ 14. Tennessee – Nov 1, 8:30 PM ET (ABC)
17. Cincinnati @ 24. Utah – Nov 1, 10:15 PM ET (ESPN)
Guest Guesser Update
Finally a good week from Will! I went 9/10 on my college picks and slowly but surely am starting to chip back and the hole I dug myself in last week.
I’d love to hear from readers, too. Think my takes are dumb? Want my opinion on something I missed? Email me at thecollegefootblog@gmail.com.
