A few weeks ago, I wrote a follow-up on my midseason predictions for conference champions. In the two weeks since, almost all of those predictions have gone up in smoke. Outside of a handful of top teams, nobody seems interested in grabbing the season by the horns. Wishy-washy play and losses to teams they shouldn’t be losing to have left a long list of programs stuck in limbo, unsure whether this year is shaping up to be a success or a letdown.
Week 11 added even more teams to that dreaded middle space, and it let a few others escape it in ways we haven’t really seen this season.
Turmoil on the Atlantic Coast
Just one week after ACC front-runners Georgia Tech and Miami suffered losses to unranked opponents, the hypothetical storm made landfall again. This time it swallowed then-undefeated Virginia and one-loss Louisville, both losing at home to make the pain sting even more.
Virginia, who had technically not lost a conference game since their lone defeat came in that bizarre “non-conference game” against NC State, walked in at 7-1. Their résumé wasn’t bulletproof, though. Their best win was against Florida State, who turned out to be more train wreck than titan, and four of their last five wins were by one score. Still, the CFP committee put them at 14 on Tuesday night, good enough to make the playoff bracket as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
But the clock struck midnight. The Cavaliers couldn’t escape the Demons of Wake Forest.
Virginia went just 3-for-14 on third down, and the nine points on the scoreboard told the same story. Yet, down only seven with two and a half minutes left, they still had a chance to rewrite the whole afternoon. They marched down the field and set up a third and six from the Wake Forest 8. An errant throw that was somehow caught kept the drive alive, but Trell Harris couldn’t get out of bounds. With no timeouts, Virginia scrambled to the line for a fourth and three snap with 13 seconds left. The fade fell incomplete, and Jahmal Edrine couldn’t outjump the three Demon Deacons draped around him.
Almost at the exact same moment, one state to the east, Louisville found itself tied 23-23 with Cal. After a shanked punt by the Golden Bears, the Cardinals were just ten yards from their kicker’s range with a timeout to spare. One smart play from veteran quarterback Miller Moss was all they needed. Instead, he was sacked, Louisville burned their last timeout, and a short in-bounds completion afterwards killed any shot at a game-winning field goal. Overtime beckoned.
Louisville went backward on its first possession and settled for a field goal just to extend the game. It was good, but the defense still had to deliver. Knowing what you need to do and being able to do it are two very different things. Cal marched straight down the short-field overtime setup, never losing yards, and faced a fourth and goal from the three. Justin Wilcox kept his offense on the field. Jacob De Jesus dove into the endzone, putting the final stamp on his 153-yard night and giving Cal the win.
The ACC now has four teams sitting at 5-1 in conference play: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, and SMU. Duke sits at 4-1, though the Blue Devils just dropped their third non-conference game to fall to 5-4 overall. With only three weeks left before the conference title matchup is decided, the race is wide open. But the idea of any champion finishing inside the top 12 feels almost as unlikely as predicting which team will even get there. If not for the chaos happening in the American and Mountain West, the ACC would be sweating bullets about whether they’ll get even one team into the playoff.
I’ll be rooting for Duke to make a run. Imagine a team that lost to Tulane and UConn crashing the playoff party.
Big 12's Best
The biggest game of the day was the Big 12’s chance to shine. With College Gameday in town and all eyes on the top-10 matchup between BYU and Texas Tech, this was the moment for each team to show why they deserve playoff consideration.
One team did that well.
The other… not so much.
Texas Tech made its case loud and clear. The Red Raiders look like the best team in the Big 12, and it might not even be close. They’ve scored the most points in conference play and allowed the fewest, which is usually a pretty decent recipe for winning football games. Saturday against BYU fit that pattern perfectly.
I declared the game over the moment Parker Kingston muffed the punt, handing Texas Tech the ball on the BYU 17. Up to that point, BYU’s defense had actually shown up, sacking Behren Morton twice on the previous drive and forcing a punt. After the short-field field goal, Tech had minus-24 yards and three points. That tells you everything about how lopsided the effort was across the three phases.
BYU’s defense kept fighting, but the offense looked like it missed the bus. The play calling and execution were rough: just 3-for-14 on third down, no real attempts to stretch the field, and a general unwillingness to trust Bear Bachmeier to go make plays. Special teams followed suit with the full bingo card of disasters: missed field goals, shanked punts, and kickoff returns that couldn’t sniff the 15-yard line.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, played like a team fully aware of the stage. The offense did enough to slowly wear down BYU’s defense, and the Red Raider defense had every answer. Their pressure and disguises clearly rattled Bachmeier, and BYU responded by going ultra-conservative, which only tightened the noose. No big plays, no rhythm, no chance.
The Red Raiders’ lone loss came on the road with Morton out due to injury, and that alone tells you plenty. They’re for real.
BYU isn’t dead, though. With a road trip to Cincinnati in two weeks, they still control their shot at the title game. As things stand, that matchup looks like the de facto semifinal for who gets a date with Texas Tech in Arlington.
Big 10 bring Big Chaos
A game that was supposed to be good in the preseason, turned into a huge matchup in September, faded into a possible dud by midseason, then ended up being absolutely wild… well, that kind of chaos fits perfectly with how hard it has been to figure out the stakes of this matchup over the last few months.
Indiana had never beaten Penn State in Happy Valley before yesterday, and midway through the third quarter it looked like the Hoosiers were finally going to coast to their first win there. Then came 17 unanswered points from the Nittany Lions, putting not just Indiana’s win in jeopardy, but their undefeated regular season as well. With under two minutes left, Heisman hopeful Fernando Mendoza didn’t blink. He led an 80–yard march capped by one of the most ridiculous catches you’ll ever see.
As Mendoza was falling backward while getting hit, he chucked a pass that looked like he was simply throwing it out of the back of the end zone to live for fourth down. Omar Cooper Jr. had other plans. He launched himself into the air, snagged the ball, and while being shoved out, somehow dragged his left foot down in bounds maybe a millisecond before his right came down out of bounds. Seriously, go watch the catch. It’s absurd. More absurd? Gus Johnson’s call. He’s had plenty of iconic calls in his career, but this one sounded like his voice tried to dive out of the booth and short-circuited on the way down.
Indiana survived, and with only Wisconsin and Purdue left on the schedule, their reservation in Indianapolis looks just about confirmed.
Oregon, meanwhile, went to Iowa City trying to stay alive in the race to repeat as conference champs. The weather was a full-on monsoon, and both quarterbacks, Dante Moore and Mark Gronowski, spent the afternoon throwing what looked like waterlogged medicine balls. As expected, the ground game became king.
Gronowski pieced together a 12-play, 93-yard drive that drained almost seven minutes, and he did it at the exact moment Iowa needed it. He capped it with a fourth-and-goal QB run to take a one-point lead. The two-point conversion was ruled incomplete after a long review, leaving Iowa up only one with two minutes left. Up to that point, Gronowski had outplayed Moore, but Moore answered with 48 yards on the final drive, including a clutch 24-yard strike that pushed Oregon into field goal range. Atticus Sappington then crushed a 39-yarder through the rain for the win.
The Big Ten still has Indiana and Ohio State unbeaten in conference play thanks to OSU’s win over Purdue. Behind them, USC, Oregon, and Michigan all sit with one conference loss. Oregon and USC meet in two weeks, and we all know The Game at the end of November can turn the standings upside down. Indiana might already be packing for the title game, but the race for the other spot is still wide open.
G5 Contenders
This might be the wildest set of switch-ups of the entire week. After Boise State lost in the Mountain West, it looked like San Diego State was going to take control of the race. Hawai‘i had other plans. The Rainbow Warriors showed up late last night and absolutely crushed the Aztecs. With San Diego State now holding two losses, including one to, let’s be honest, a terrible Washington State team, their CFP chances are gone. Boise State’s three losses knock them out too.
Meanwhile, the American Conference cannot get out of its own way. Memphis wasn’t ranked in Tuesday’s CFP rankings, yet they still held the position of “next highest conference champion” and were slotted into the playoff as a result. To celebrate, they immediately went out and got beat by Tulane. Every American Conference title contender now has two or more losses except North Texas, whose only loss is to USF. I still think either USF or North Texas has a real shot if they win the league, but honestly, at this point East Carolina could rise up and steal the whole thing for all we know.
All this chaos brings a new name into the conversation: James Madison. The Dukes are a mighty 8-1, with their only loss coming early in the season at Louisville. Being in the Sun Belt doesn’t help their brand much, but they’ve hammered almost everyone they’ve faced, with five of their six conference wins coming by double digits. Their final-week matchup against Coastal Carolina is shaping up to be a “win and you’re in” for the Sun Belt title game. And if they finish 12-1, it would be hard to keep them out of the playoff, especially with the meltdown happening in the American, Mountain West, and even the ACC.
Game of the Week: Delaware 25, Louisiana Tech 24
A game that probably wasn’t on many people’s radar turned out to be one of the better matchups of the weekend. Louisiana Tech was forced to use three different quarterbacks, and not a single one managed to eclipse the 100-yard passing mark.
As the fourth quarter opened, the Bulldogs found themselves down 16–7. A drive ending in a field goal, a quick three-and-out, and then a touchdown flipped the script and gave Louisiana Tech a 17–16 lead despite all the quarterback chaos. With three minutes left, they were trying to hold Delaware scoreless, and things only got better when Blue Hens quarterback Nick Minicucci threw a pick-six. Delaware went from leading most of the second half to suddenly trailing by eight with just over two minutes to play.
Minicucci didn’t fold. He turned around and marched the Blue Hens 75 yards in eight plays, using just 1:49 of clock. They were a two-point conversion away from tying the game. The fade to the back left corner sailed long, and it looked like Minicucci’s heroics had run dry.
Then came the onside kick, a ball that bounced around like it had stage fright before being scooped up by—you guessed it—the Blue Hens. Even with that break, they still needed a 51-yard field goal to win. That’s when the hero’s torch passed to kicker Nate Reed, who drilled the kick and made it look like it would have been good from 60.
Do I even need to explain why this game was so good? It’s pretty obvious why it’s this week’s College Footblog Game of the Week.
Stat Line of the Week
Antwan Raymond (Rutgers): 41 CAR 240 YDS 1 TD
Yes that says 41 carries. 41 Carries! Rutgers only ran 69 plays all game. Antwan Raymond ran the ball 60% of plays. He only averaged 6 yards a carry but still, this is the definition of the Marshawn Lynch quote where he said he going to run you over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over. Maryland had no answer for Raymond, and props to him and the coach staff at Rutgers for not fixing something that wasn't broke.
Will’s Corner
BYU 7, Texas Tech 29
Hopefully they can build on this and not sulk in their misery as they still have a chance to get a rematch with Texas Tech. They need to beat TCU as they come to Provo this coming Saturday.
Tennessee Bye
The November non conference game has arrives as the Vols host New Mexico State this week.
Washington State Bye
Hopefully they figured somethings out as Louisiana Tech comes to town this week.
Will's CFP Rankings
No more reaction to the corrupt AP Poll, just my own rankings as if I were on the committee, try and see what I value in my rankings and compare them to the actual rankings come Tuesday.
2. Texas A&M
CFB News
The ESPN versus YouTube TV debacle rolls on. Not only have they managed to make sports fans furious, they’ve now dragged the Dancing With the Stars crowd into the storm too.
ESPN’s College Gameday still hasn’t announced where it’s heading next. Rumors have been swirling, especially after host Rece Davis hinted that the show could be heading to Arkadelphia, Arkansas, for the Battle of the Ravine between Henderson State and Ouachita Baptist. The two schools sit right across the street from each other, only about a ten-minute walk between stadiums.
Big Noon Kickoff, meanwhile, is headed to Wrigley Field for Michigan versus Northwestern. Let’s be honest: this matchup probably wouldn’t carry much weight if it weren’t being played inside the Friendly Confines.
Games to Watch – Week 11
Ohio @ Western Michigan – Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET (ESPN2)
9. Notre Dame @ Pitt – Nov 15, 12:00 PM ET (ABC)
12. Oklahoma @ 4. Alabama – Nov 15, 3:30 PM ET (ABC)
11. Texas @ 5. Georgia – Nov 15, 7:30 PM ET (ABC)
Guest Guesser Update
All of our ten college picks this week were the same. That does not bod well for me as I am trying to make up ground. Three weeks left to make something happen.
I’d love to hear from readers, too. Think my takes are dumb? Want my opinion on something I missed? Email me at thecollegefootblog@gmail.com.
